Eight ghosts. Two tracks. Zero live money (yet).
Lab
Before any ghost places a real trade, each (profile × strategy) pair must accumulate enough paper-trade outcomes for its win-probability calibrator to mean something. Until then every signal is journaled, every gate is logged, and the sizer stays at its minimal bootstrap size — 1 share per stock signal, a small fixed notional per crypto signal. Stocks trade during market hours; crypto runs 24/7. This page is the live look at that bootstrap — updated every 60 seconds.
Articles classified
34,659
Catalysts logged
57,005
Active right now
63
Signals generated
210,253
Outcomes accumulated
699
Gated today
363
Stocks signals
2,390
📈
Crypto signals
207,863
₿
Active strategy instances
Phase 1 of the lab seeds one default-param instance per strategy. Each row below tracks one of those instances. Once an instance has 100 closed trades with PF > 1.1 and Brier < 0.22, it gets promoted into a ghost's live mix.
📈 Stocks
| Instance | Trades | Win% | PF | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hollow Prophet Catalyst Scalper #1f1a | 18 | 33% | 0.91 | −$24 | live |
Gilded Gambler Crypto/Equity Coupling #cbe1 | 0 | — | — | — | live |
Neon Mongoose Gap & Go #0e76 | 11 | 18% | 0.02 | −$328 | live |
Pale Shade Mean Reversion (RSI/VWAP) #e148 | 86 | 53% | 0.70 | −$11 | nursery |
Howling Wraith Mean Reversion (RSI/VWAP) #6c79 | 197 | 35% | 0.95 | −$102 | live |
Neon Drifter Mean Reversion (RSI/VWAP) #dfe3 | 86 | 53% | 0.70 | −$11 | nursery |
Gilded Revenant Mean Reversion (RSI/VWAP) #1370 | 67 | 57% | 0.73 | −$8 | nursery |
Grim Baron Mean Reversion (RSI/VWAP) #e2fa | 67 | 57% | 0.73 | −$8 | nursery |
Neon Sardine Momentum Breakout #e60f | 0 | — | — | — | nursery |
Banished Ghoul Momentum Breakout #1945 | 74 | 39% | 0.87 | −$7 | nursery |
Banished Mongoose Momentum Breakout #d6cd | 13 | 54% | 1.41 | +$3 | nursery |
Banished Gambler Momentum Breakout #88c2 | 74 | 39% | 0.87 | −$7 | nursery |
Pale Reaper Momentum Breakout #35b5 | 144 | 38% | 1.15 | +$184 | live |
Pale Ghoul Political News #d431 | 9 | 33% | 1.19 | +$13 | live |
₿ Crypto
| Instance | Trades | Win% | PF | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Midnight Phantasm Crypto Breakout #2155 | 0 | — | — | — | live |
Ectoplasmic Gambler Crypto Momentum #e795 | 220 | 22% | 0.08 | −$11206 | live |
Banished Apparition Crypto Momentum #b2cd | 88 | 38% | 0.94 | −$9 | nursery |
Ectoplasmic Marauder Crypto Momentum #9e2f | 33 | 42% | 1.16 | +$8 | nursery |
Pale Specter Crypto Momentum #a709 | 40 | 18% | 0.33 | −$62 | nursery |
Pale Ghoul Crypto Momentum #32e1 | 39 | 33% | 0.79 | −$16 | nursery |
Lurking Duchess Crypto News #22aa | 0 | — | — | — | live |
Grim Vagrant Stablecoin Arbitrage #08d1 | 0 | — | — | — | live |
Feral Reaper Stablecoin Arbitrage #17a8 | 11 | 9% | 0.38 | −$28 | live |
📈 Stock strategies
All six stock strategies are anchored here. Each needs 100 observed outcomes before the calibrator can produce a meaningful win-probability curve.
| Strategy | Pack | Signals | Outcomes | Win rate | Progress to calibration | Status | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏛Political News | Political | 847 | 9 | 33.3% | +$13 | 1.19 | 9/100 | calibrating |
| 🪞Mean Reversion (RSI/VWAP) | Core Technical | 791 | 197 | 35.0% | −$557 | 0.72 | calibrated | ready for live |
| 📈Momentum Breakout | Core Technical | 557 | 144 | 37.5% | +$181 | 1.14 | calibrated | ready for live |
| 🌅Gap & Go | Core Technical | 142 | 11 | 18.2% | −$328 | 0.02 | 11/100 | calibrating |
| 🎯Catalyst Scalper | News-Driven | 53 | 18 | 33.3% | −$24 | 0.91 | 18/100 | calibrating |
| ₿Crypto/Equity Coupling | Crypto Macro | — | 0 | — | — | — | no signals yet | calibrating |
₿ Crypto strategies
Four crypto-native strategies running 24/7. Same calibration bar: 100 outcomes per (profile × strategy) pair before real sizing kicks in.
| Strategy | Pack | Signals | Outcomes | Win rate | Progress to calibration | Status | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈Crypto Momentum | Crypto | 203645 | 308 | 29.5% | −$17017 | 0.14 | calibrated | ready for live |
| ⚓Stablecoin Arbitrage | Crypto | 4122 | 12 | 16.7% | −$26 | 0.42 | 12/100 | calibrating |
| 🔔Crypto Breakout | Crypto | 96 | 0 | — | — | — | 0/100 | calibrating |
| 📰Crypto News | Crypto | — | 0 | — | — | — | no signals yet | calibrating |
Today's signal funnel
Every signal goes through six gates before a single share is sized. Here's how many fell out at each step today.
Gate 1 — Score
Raw confidence below minimum threshold
signals whose confidence score didn't clear the bar
Gate 2 — Regime
Strategy not allowed in current market regime
bootstrap bypass lets some through anyway — the ghost needs data from every regime
Gate 3 — Daily cap
Per-symbol daily trade limit reached
prevents piling into the same ticker multiple times in one session
Gate 4 — Sizer
Calibrator unfit → 0 shares sized
the win-probability model isn't confident enough to size a position
Gate 5 — Fan-out
Per-profile cap or price ceiling hit
Per-trade notional caps: Conservative $300, Clockpuncher $500, Newshound $2,000, Gunslinger $3,000 (the last two run the $10k large-capital track).
Gate 6 — Execution
Broker reject or market closed
paper broker accepts all, so this gate rarely fires during market hours
Gate reasons logged today
The eight ghosts during bootstrap
Four stock ghosts (market hours) + four crypto ghosts (24/7). Most start with $1,000 notional; Newshound and Gunslinger run the $10k large-capital track. During bootstrap stock ghosts trade 1 share per signal; crypto ghosts trade a small fixed notional per signal.
📈 Stock ghosts
Conservative
the careful one
Bankroll: $1,000 notional
Per-trade cap: $300
PAPER · 8 outcomes
Clockpuncher
the daytrader
Bankroll: $1,000 notional
Per-trade cap: $500
PAPER · 89 outcomes
Newshound
the headline chaser
Bankroll: $10,000 notional
Per-trade cap: $2,000
ELIGIBLE FOR LIVE
Gunslinger
the reckless one
Bankroll: $10,000 notional
Per-trade cap: $3,000
ELIGIBLE FOR LIVE
₿ Crypto ghosts
Stablecoin Stoic
the careful one
Bankroll: $1,000 notional
Max position: 20%
PAPER · 10 outcomes
HODLer
the patient one
Bankroll: $1,000 notional
Max position: 20%
PAPER · 5 outcomes
Pump Chaser
the momentum one
Bankroll: $1,000 notional
Max position: 12%
PAPER · 51 outcomes
Degen
the chaos one
Bankroll: $1,000 notional
Max position: 20%
ELIGIBLE FOR LIVE
How the ghost is learning during bootstrap
Every signal goes through 6 gates (score · regime · per-symbol cap · sizer · fan-out · per-profile cap). While each strategy has fewer than 100 observed outcomes:
- The regime gate is informational only — signals get through even when the market is in the "wrong" regime for the strategy.
- The position sizer short-circuits to a bootstrap size — 1 share per stock signal, a small fixed notional per crypto signal — so it fits under each ghost's hard cap.
- Stock per-trade caps: Conservative ≤ $300 · Clockpuncher ≤ $500 · Newshound ≤ $2,000 · Gunslinger ≤ $3,000. Conservative & Clockpuncher run on $1k of working capital, Newshound & Gunslinger on $10k. Crypto ghosts size by position percentage (20% · 20% · 12% · 20%), backstopped by a hard notional cap.
When the first ghost graduates
The fan-out sizer switches from 1-share bootstrap to fractional-Kelly real sizing. Per-profile equity curves on /ghosts will start to diverge dramatically. The morgue opens.
Live promotion eligibility
A (profile × strategy) pair becomes live-eligible when ALL of these clear:
- outcomes ≥ profile threshold (50–100 depending on profile)
- profit_factor ≥ profile threshold (0.85–1.15 depending on profile)
- max_drawdown ≤ 8% (all profiles)
- last 30-day profit factor ≥ 0.90 (all profiles)
Applies equally to stock and crypto (profile × strategy) pairs.
Table populates once the first pair clears all gates.