Eight ghosts. Two tracks. Zero live money (yet).
Lab
Before any ghost places a real trade, each (profile × strategy) pair must accumulate enough paper-trade outcomes for its win-probability calibrator to mean something. Until then every signal is journaled, every gate is logged, and the sizer stays at 1 share per signal. Stocks trade during market hours; crypto runs 24/7. This page is the live look at that bootstrap — updated every 60 seconds.
Articles classified
9,035
Catalysts logged
10,703
Active right now
29
Signals generated
42,388
Outcomes accumulated
68
Gated today
74
Stocks signals
128
📈
Crypto signals
42,260
₿
Active strategy instances
Phase 1 of the lab seeds one default-param instance per strategy. Each row below tracks one of those instances. Once an instance has 100 closed trades with PF > 1.1 and Brier < 0.22, it gets promoted into a ghost's live mix.
📈 Stocks
| Instance | Trades | Win% | PF | P&L | Maturity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catalyst Scalper#1f1a | 2 | 100% | 0.00 | $22.44 | live |
| Crypto/Equity Coupling#cbe1 | 0 | 0% | 0.00 | $0.00 | live |
| Gap & Go#0e76 | 0 | 0% | 0.00 | $0.00 | live |
| Mean Reversion (RSI/VWAP)#6c79 | 7 | 43% | 1.01 | $0.07 | live |
| Momentum Breakout#35b5 | 6 | 67% | 2.31 | $17.05 | live |
| Political News#d431 | 0 | 0% | 0.00 | $0.00 | live |
₿ Crypto
| Instance | Trades | Win% | PF | P&L | Maturity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto Breakout#2155 | 0 | 0% | 0.00 | $0.00 | live |
| Crypto Momentum#f840 | 121 | 40% | 2.59 | $805.14 | shadow |
| Crypto Momentum#ab69 | 49 | 37% | 0.68 | $-170.84 | live |
| Crypto Momentum#6d0b | 130 | 42% | 2.62 | $852.03 | shadow |
| Crypto Momentum#28cf | 130 | 40% | 2.40 | $789.87 | shadow |
| Crypto Momentum#0781 | 138 | 45% | 4.41 | $1820.19 | shadow |
| Crypto News#22aa | 0 | 0% | 0.00 | $0.00 | live |
| Stablecoin Arbitrage#17a8 | 2 | 0% | 0.00 | $-9.28 | live |
| Stablecoin Arbitrage#08d1 | 0 | 0% | 0.00 | $0.00 | live |
📈 Stock strategies
All six stock strategies are anchored here. Each needs 100 observed outcomes before the calibrator can produce a meaningful win-probability curve.
| Strategy | Pack | Signals | Outcomes | Win rate | Progress to calibration | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🪞Mean Reversion (RSI/VWAP) | Core Technical | 78 | 7 | 42.9% | 7/100 | calibrating |
| 📈Momentum Breakout | Core Technical | 33 | 6 | 66.7% | 6/100 | calibrating |
| 🎯Catalyst Scalper | News-Driven | 17 | 2 | 100.0% | 2/100 | calibrating |
| 🌅Gap & Go | Core Technical | — | 0 | — | no signals yet | calibrating |
| ₿Crypto/Equity Coupling | Crypto Macro | — | 0 | — | no signals yet | calibrating |
| 🏛Political News | Political | — | 0 | — | no signals yet | calibrating |
₿ Crypto strategies
Four crypto-native strategies running 24/7. Same calibration bar: 100 outcomes per (profile × strategy) pair before real sizing kicks in.
| Strategy | Pack | Signals | Outcomes | Win rate | Progress to calibration | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈Crypto Momentum | Crypto | 41616 | 50 | 34.0% | 50/100 | calibrating |
| ⚓Stablecoin Arbitrage | Crypto | 644 | 3 | 33.3% | 3/100 | calibrating |
| 🔔Crypto Breakout | Crypto | — | 0 | — | no signals yet | calibrating |
| 📰Crypto News | Crypto | — | 0 | — | no signals yet | calibrating |
Today's signal funnel
Every signal goes through six gates before a single share is sized. Here's how many fell out at each step today.
Gate 1 — Score
Raw confidence below minimum threshold
signals whose confidence score didn't clear the bar
Gate 2 — Regime
Strategy not allowed in current market regime
bootstrap bypass lets some through anyway — the ghost needs data from every regime
Gate 3 — Daily cap
Per-symbol daily trade limit reached
prevents piling into the same ticker multiple times in one session
Gate 4 — Sizer
Calibrator unfit → 0 shares sized
the win-probability model isn't confident enough to size a position
Gate 5 — Fan-out
Per-profile cap or price ceiling hit
Per-trade notional caps: Conservative $200, Clockpuncher $125, Newshound $150, Gunslinger $200.
Gate 6 — Execution
Broker reject or market closed
paper broker accepts all, so this gate rarely fires during market hours
Gate reasons logged today
The eight ghosts during bootstrap
Four stock ghosts (market hours) + four crypto ghosts (24/7). Each starts with $1,000 notional. During bootstrap they all trade 1 share per signal.
📈 Stock ghosts
Conservative
the careful one
Bankroll: $1,000 notional
Max share price: $200
PAPER · 0 outcomes
Clockpuncher
the daytrader
Bankroll: $1,000 notional
Max share price: $125
PAPER · 2 outcomes
Newshound
the headline chaser
Bankroll: $1,000 notional
Max share price: $150
PAPER · 1 outcomes
Gunslinger
the reckless one
Bankroll: $1,000 notional
Max share price: $200
PAPER · 12 outcomes
₿ Crypto ghosts
Stablecoin Stoic
the careful one
Bankroll: $1,000 notional
Max position: 1%
PAPER · 3 outcomes
HODLer
the patient one
Bankroll: $1,000 notional
Max position: 3%
PAPER · 1 outcomes
Pump Chaser
the momentum one
Bankroll: $1,000 notional
Max position: 5%
PAPER · 11 outcomes
Degen
the chaos one
Bankroll: $1,000 notional
Max position: 8%
PAPER · 38 outcomes
How the ghost is learning during bootstrap
Every signal goes through 6 gates (score · regime · per-symbol cap · sizer · fan-out · per-profile cap). While each strategy has fewer than 100 observed outcomes:
- The regime gate is informational only — signals get through even when the market is in the "wrong" regime for the strategy.
- The position sizer short-circuits to 1 share (or 1 unit for crypto) per profile so notional fits under each ghost's hard cap.
- Stock caps: Conservative ≤ $200 · Clockpuncher ≤ $125 · Newshound ≤ $150 · Gunslinger ≤ $200. Crypto caps are position-percentage based (1% · 3% · 5% · 8%).
When the first ghost graduates
The fan-out sizer switches from 1-share bootstrap to fractional-Kelly real sizing. Per-profile equity curves on /ghosts will start to diverge dramatically. The morgue opens.
Live promotion eligibility
A (profile × strategy) pair becomes live-eligible when ALL of these clear:
- outcomes ≥ profile threshold (50–100 depending on profile)
- profit_factor ≥ profile threshold (0.85–1.15 depending on profile)
- max_drawdown ≤ 8% (all profiles)
- last 30-day profit factor ≥ 0.90 (all profiles)
Applies equally to stock and crypto (profile × strategy) pairs.
Table populates once the first pair clears all gates.